{"id":19094,"date":"2022-11-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-07T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/?post_type=purple_issue&p=19094"},"modified":"2022-11-09T11:14:50","modified_gmt":"2022-11-09T10:14:50","slug":"will-self-driving-cars-take-over-the-roads-by-2025-its-unlikely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/2022\/11\/08\/will-self-driving-cars-take-over-the-roads-by-2025-its-unlikely\/","title":{"rendered":"Will self-driving cars take over the roads by 2025? It\u2019s unlikely"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

INNOVATIONS<\/strong>
PREPARE YOURSELF FOR TOMORROW<\/em><\/p>\n\n

Will self-driving cars take over the roads by 2025? It\u2019s unlikely<\/h2>\n\n

The UK government plans to have self-driving cars on the nation\u2019s roads by 2025. We talk to Jack <\/strong>Stilgoe, <\/strong>a leading researcher, who doesn\u2019t think much will change <\/p>\n\n

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S<\/span>elf-driving cars have rapidly gone from science-fiction trope to the technology of today, with manufacturers all over the world racing to develop the ultimate driverless experience. <\/p>\n\n

While the technology has seen drastic improvements in recent years, we\u2019re still a long way from a world free of vehicles that need humans at the wheel. And yet, the UK government has said it wants to get self-driving cars on the road within the next three years. But how realistic is this deadline? And, assuming we hit it, is it going to drastically change the UK\u2019s roads? We spoke to Jack Stilgoe, a professor of science and technology policy at University College London, to map out the future of cars. <\/p>\n\n

HITTING THE ROAD<\/h5>\n\n

As part of a new plan for self-driving vehicles, the government has committed to spending \u00a3100m on supporting innovation in the industry. It estimates the investment will lead to 38,000 new jobs and a complete overhaul of how our roads will look. <\/span><\/p>\n\n

While this could mean integration of driverless cars very shortly, Stilgoe suspects this will be on an incredibly small and limited scale.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

\u201cWhen we say \u2018self-driving cars by 2025\u2019, we need to ask, in what conditions? On what sorts of roads and for which people? The cars are likely to be constrained to motorways, which are already a tidy and safe driving environment,\u201d he says. \u201cWe might see a self-driving vehicle being able to cope with a motorway scenario in quite a predictable way by 2025.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

This is a long way away from self-driving cars being a big part of our infrastructure, however. And that\u2019s not really surprising, as the cost of the vehicles will mean they\u2019re likely to only be an option for people with high incomes. <\/p>\n\n

REWRITING THE RULES<\/h5>\n\n

Despite what these plans for rapid advancements suggest, the UK has fallen behind in terms of self-driving innovation. <\/span><\/p>\n\n

\u201cBritish policymakers say this is an area where Britain can lead, even though we lost all our manufacturing capacity for Ford motor cars a few decades ago and have not been quite so bullish as the US and, increasingly, China \u2013 both of which are rapidly accelerating the deployment of [driverless] vehicles in cities,\u201d says Stilgoe. <\/p>\n\n

This doesn\u2019t mean the UK can\u2019t be a key figure in the future of driverless cars, however. \u201cBritain can still play a really important role, which historically it has done with new technologies through the process of standard setting \u2013 by helping to write the rules that shape the responsible development of the technology.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n

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Changes to the Highway Code may be required to get driverless cars on the UK\u2019s roads <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n

This idea of setting standards and rules is as important as the technology itself. The ethics and legality of self-driving cars have been debated ever since they became a realistic possibility. <\/p>\n\n

\u201cThe UK government has been working with the legal profession, thinking through questions of engineering and ethics,\u201d says Stilgoe. \u201cThe most important task, legally, is to lay out liability and responsibility. [To figure out] who is in control of a vehicle: is a driver liable or is it the manufacturer?\u201d <\/p>\n\n

There are also more subtle, unenforced rules of the road to consider, however. <\/p>\n\n

\u201cThe rules we\u2019re taught at school [the Green Cross Code, for example] and the Highway Code, which changed recently \u2013 these things will need to be taken into account. A self-driving vehicle won\u2019t interact with other road users in the same way a human would. But if we change the rules to suit self-driving cars, it could deprioritise other groups of people.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n

\u201cTHE CARS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSTRAINED TO MOTORWAYS, WHICH ARE ALREADY A TIDY AND SAFE DRIVING ENVIRONMENT\u201d <\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

As 2025 approaches, the government and the car manufacturers will need to decide on whether, and how much, the rules of the road need to change to accommodate self-driving cars. Doing so will mean ironing out details such as whether driverless cars should be clearly labelled as such, or if it\u2019s okay for them to look like every other vehicle on the road. <\/p>\n\n

THE FUTURE OF SELF-DRIVING CARS <\/h5>\n\n

Jump forward in time, and what will the future of self-driving cars look like? In the next five years or so, probably not all that different. Innovation for self-driving cars is likely to really take off in places like San Francisco, but for wider expansion, we\u2019ve got a long way to go. <\/span><\/p>\n\n

\u201cWe might see a slow rollout of the technology in which the beneficiaries of it are actually rather small,\u201d says Stilgoe. \u201cThey might be people in rich cities who already have access to a lot of ways of getting around anyway. They might be rich consumers of cars for whom this is just another gimmick.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

Currently, there is no real reason to see mass adoption of the technology, especially considering it will take a long time for the cost of buying one to become widely affordable. Stilgoe likens the situation to that of the motorcar in the early 20th Century. While it was eventually adopted by the masses, it was first taken up by a small group. It required the rules of the road to change, and cities and towns to completely change their layouts. <\/p>\n\n

This isn\u2019t to say that we won\u2019t see a sudden shift, though. \u201cThe insurance industry could get involved and say this technology is safer, so we\u2019ll make it cheaper for you to use a self-driving car than to drive your own vehicle. The insurance premiums on human drivers going up is likely to change the overall viewpoint very quickly.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

Nevertheless, Stilgoe thinks that whatever the eventual outcome turns out to be, it will be arrived at via a \u201cboring but profound\u201d route. Instead of a focus on driverless cars, the biggest developments could be seen in driverless public transport. <\/p>\n\n

In London, there are driverless light rail and Tube trains. Instead of looking to implement autonomous technology on chaotic roads, the existing technology could be developed to boost what\u2019s already operating in more controlled environments. <\/p>\n\n

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IMAGES: GETTY IMAGES, ALAMY <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UK government plans to have self-driving cars on the nation\u2019s roads by 2025. 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