{"id":6261,"date":"2022-02-25T11:03:44","date_gmt":"2022-02-25T10:03:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sciencefocus.com\/?p=111548"},"modified":"2022-02-25T11:17:12","modified_gmt":"2022-02-25T10:17:12","slug":"what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions","status":"publish","type":"rss_feed","link":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/rss_feed\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions\/","title":{"rendered":"What do scientists say about ending all COVID restrictions?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"rssexcerpt\"><\/p><p class=\"rssauthor\">By Amy Barrett\n                \t\t<\/p><p class=\"rssbyline\">Published: Friday, 25 February 2022 at 12:00 am<\/p><hr class=\"no-tts wp-block-separator\"\/><?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"yes\"?>\n<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><body><p>Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out his \u2018<a href=\"\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/covid-19-response-living-with-covid-19&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">strategy for living with COVID<\/a>\u2019, which includes ending all domestic restrictions in England, including the legal requirement to self-isolate after a positive COVID test. Johnson says the guidance is \u201cmoving from government restrictions to personal responsibility\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The restrictions were due to expire on 24 March 2022, but will now end one month earlier.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFrom 24 February, we will end the legal requirement to self-isolate following a positive test, and so we will also end self-isolation support payments, although COVID provisions for Statutory Sick Pay can still be claimed for a further month,\u201d <a href=\"\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/speeches\/pm-statement-on-living-with-covid-21-february-2022&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">Johnson told the House of Commons<\/a> on 21 February.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUntil 1 April, we will still advise people who test positive to stay at home. But after that, we will encourage people with COVID-19 symptoms to exercise personal responsibility, just as we encourage people who may have flu to be considerate to others.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Read more coronavirus news:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul><li><a href=\"&quot;https:\/\/www.sciencefocus.com\/news\/covid-19-what-is-the-future-of-variants-after-omicron\/&quot;\">COVID-19: What is the future of variants after Omicron?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"&quot;https:\/\/www.sciencefocus.com\/the-human-body\/cancer-mrna-vaccine\/&quot;\">mRNA vaccines: How COVID jab tech will teach our bodies to kill cancer<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><p>However, some scientists and doctors have expressed concern that the move is too soon and that it relies too heavily on vaccinations.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRemoving the requirement for isolation in the face of high infection levels will inevitably result in increased spread of the virus,\u201d <a href=\"\/\/warwick.ac.uk\/fac\/sci\/med\/staff\/lyoung\/&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">Professor Lawrence Young<\/a>, a virologist and professor of molecular oncology at University of Warwick, told the Science Media Centre.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe real level of current infection is uncertain given increasing use of lateral flow tests and inadequate reporting. This will be further compromised as people will not see the value of testing when they have symptoms or come into contact with infected individuals.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need to remain vigilant for the arrival of new variants and not let our guard down \u2013 testing, tracing and virus genome surveillance are vital. It is important that we stress the need to continue to protect the clinically vulnerable.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Shouldn\u2019t we be learning to live with COVID?<\/h2>\n<p>Prior to the announcement, <a href=\"\/\/medicine.exeter.ac.uk\/people\/profile\/index.php?web_id=David_Strain&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">Dr David Strain<\/a>, the clinical lead for COVID services at the Royal Devon &amp; Exeter NHS Foundation Trust, spoke to <em>BBC Science Focus.<\/em> He said ending the requirement for self-isolation with COVID-19 is premature. While learning to live with COVID is something we all want, Strain said we should be focusing on the current situation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are really keen that we do, at some point, get rid of these restrictions and find ways to live with it. But for as long as hospital waiting lists are still growing, and we still have more people in hospital than we did when we went into Plan B, I think we\u2019re probably premature to be dropping these restrictions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are once again pushing those who are clinically extremely vulnerable back into isolation, whether that be based on their age, whether it be on their co-morbidities\u2026 anybody who\u2019s got cancer or who\u2019s got a kidney disease. It\u2019s putting all of that population back into isolation again. Except this time it\u2019s doing so without a legal mandate and therefore without financial protection for those who need to work from home.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"&quot;twitter-tweet&quot;\" data-dnt=\"&quot;true&quot;\"><p lang=\"&quot;en&quot;\" dir=\"&quot;ltr&quot;\">63% of Britons oppose the decision for people in England to no longer have to self-isolate if they test positive for Covid-19<br\/><br\/>All Britons<br\/>Support: 30% \/ Oppose: 63%<br\/><br\/>Con voters<br\/>Support: 42% \/ Oppose: 53%<br\/><br\/>Lab voters <br\/>Support: 14% \/ Oppose: 82%<a href=\"&quot;https:\/\/t.co\/p3nh9gdn3J&quot;\">https:\/\/t.co\/p3nh9gdn3J<\/a> <a href=\"&quot;https:\/\/t.co\/AL9jZCMbeT&quot;\">pic.twitter.com\/AL9jZCMbeT<\/a><\/p>\u2014 YouGov (@YouGov) <a href=\"&quot;https:\/\/twitter.com\/YouGov\/status\/1496146551986601998?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&quot;\">February 22, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async=\"\" src=\"&quot;https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js&quot;\" charset=\"&quot;utf-8&quot;\"\/><h2>Are we putting vulnerable people at risk?<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"\/\/www.mrc-epid.cam.ac.uk\/people\/raghib-ali\/&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">Dr Raghib Ali<\/a>, a clinical epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge and frontline clinician, says the risk for vulnerable people isn\u2019t likely to change with the removal of restrictions, because many people who can will continue to self-isolate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI understand why people who are vulnerable are concerned, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to make a difference to their risk\u2026 It\u2019s not like we\u2019re going from 100 per cent of people [testing positive] self-isolating to zero per cent.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFrom what I\u2019ve learned, voluntary behavioural change is very, very important to what actually happens. Back in 2020 between the second and third lockdowns,<b> <\/b>household visiting decreased, even though it was generally allowed, and it increased during the third lockdown, even when it was illegal. This is because, although it didn\u2019t align with the law, it did align with the relative risk at that time \u2013 the risk was very low, so people increased their contacts. I\u2019m not saying it was right to break the law. Of course, it wasn\u2019t. But that\u2019s what in practise will happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Based on this previous experience, Ali believes the trajectory of infection rates will be unchanged by removing or keeping restrictions. \u201cI\u2019m confident, based on how people have behaved until now, that the majority of people will continue to isolate if they have symptoms,\u201d said Ali.<\/p>\n<p>However, relying on people to self-isolate without the legal requirement may exacerbate already existing inequalities, said <a href=\"\/\/medicinehealth.leeds.ac.uk\/medicine\/staff\/384\/dr-stephen-griffin&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">Dr Stephen Griffin<\/a>, a professor in the school of medicine at the University of Leeds.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cVulnerable people require others to test, wear masks and isolate in order to prevent their exposure to infection. These trivial, and now familiar exercises are a small price to pay in order to allow everyone to move forward together,\u201d Griffin told the Science Media Centre.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnother [suggestion] was the opportunity to pay for testing, and advice to isolate when symptomatic but without financial or legal support. This exacerbates inequalities already present in society, and I would suggest that the vast majority of families can ill afford sufficient [lateral flow tests] to act responsibly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In his House of Commons announcement, Johnson said that from 24 February, self-isolation support payments would be ending \u201calthough COVID provisions for Statutory Sick Pay can still be claimed for a further month\u201d.\u00a0Many scientists and clinicians, including Ali, have said it would be better to continue with current provisions of sick pay for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<h2>Why are we stopping testing?<\/h2>\n<p>Mass testing is expensive, and it becomes less accurate the lower case numbers go, said Ali.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor all health care interventions, we use a standard measure called the number needed to treat. So, if you need to test 1,000 people to prevent 1 infection, you might say, \u2018Well, that\u2019s not bad use of money\u2019. If you need to test 10,000 people to prevent 1 case, then you might say that that\u2019s not the best use of money. Maybe we should spend that on something else instead.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These kinds of trade-offs require evidence, said Ali, and currently the understanding of the effectiveness of mass testing relies on observational evidence.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou could ask, did countries which had no free lateral flow testing do worse than us? In Ireland or in any other comparable European country, it doesn\u2019t seem that they\u2019ve had significantly worse outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s not the best level of evidence, though. It would be much better if we did a trial in the UK and compared two areas, one with free testing and one without, and see what the outcome is at the end of two months or something. I hope that will happen and that\u2019s what I would advise the government to do.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>What if a new variant emerges?<\/h2>\n<p>Yet removing the restrictions \u201ccould undermine any hope of a preemptive rapid response to a new wave of infection.\u201d according to Griffin.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNaturally as a virologist I am also concerned that allowing high prevalence [of the virus] in a partially vaccinated population is a recipe for virus evolution to accelerate\u2026 we cannot predict the origin or nature of the next, inevitable variant of concern.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"&quot;image-handler__container\" image-handler__container--full=\"\" style=\"&quot;padding-bottom:\" calc=\"\"> <picture><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?webp=true&amp;quality=90&amp;resize=300%2C169,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/webp&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=300%2C169,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?webp=true&amp;quality=90&amp;resize=355%2C200,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/webp&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=355%2C200,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?webp=true&amp;quality=90&amp;resize=405%2C228,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/webp&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=405%2C228,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?webp=true&amp;quality=90&amp;resize=554%2C312,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/webp&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(max-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=554%2C312,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(min-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?webp=true&amp;quality=90&amp;resize=620%2C349&quot;\" type=\"&quot;image\/webp&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(min-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=620%2C349&quot;\" type=\"&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(min-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?webp=true&amp;quality=90&amp;resize=408%2C230,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/webp&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(min-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=408%2C230,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(min-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?webp=true&amp;quality=90&amp;resize=556%2C313,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/webp&quot;\"><source media=\"&quot;(min-width:\" data-srcset=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=556%2C313,\" https:=\"\" type=\"&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;\"><img class=\"&quot;wp-image-112285\" align=\"\" size-full=\"\" image-handler__image=\"\" image-handler__image--full=\"\" no-wrap=\"\" js-lazyload=\"\" data-src=\"&quot;https:\/\/images.immediate.co.uk\/production\/volatile\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1263576947-2311859.jpg?quality=90&amp;resize=620%2C349&quot;\" width=\"&quot;620&quot;\" height=\"&quot;348&quot;\" alt=\"&quot;From\" february=\"\" passengers=\"\" on=\"\" the=\"\" london=\"\" underground=\"\" will=\"\" no=\"\" longer=\"\" be=\"\" required=\"\" to=\"\" wear=\"\" masks=\"\" getty=\"\" images=\"\" title=\"&quot;From\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/div><div class=\"&quot;caption-hold&quot;\"><figcaption class=\"&quot;wp-caption-text&quot;\"><span class=\"&quot;caption-copy&quot;\"><i class=\"&quot;icon-arrow\" icon-camera-circle=\"\"\/> From 24 February 2022. passengers on the London Underground will no longer be required to wear masks \u00a9 Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><span class=\"&quot;im-image-caption&quot;\"\/><\/div>\n<p>The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) have advised the government that \u201cthere is considerable uncertainty about the future path of the pandemic, and there may of course be significant resurgences\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Johnson told ministers that SAGE are certain that new variants will emerge, and it\u2019s possible they will be worse than <a href=\"&quot;https:\/\/www.sciencefocus.com\/news\/omicron-covid-variant\/&quot;\">Omicron<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>However, Ali said the presence or removal restrictions will not affect the likelihood of a new variant. \u201cThere\u2019s no there\u2019s no guarantee that the virus will spread more [following 24 February]. In addition, a new variant can come from anywhere in the world and it will come to the UK, because we can\u2019t stop that.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Will we see more long COVID cases due to the restrictions ending?<\/h2>\n<p>Strain is the medical advisor for <a href=\"\/\/www.actionforme.org.uk\/news\/%E2%80%8Bmeet-our-new-medical-advisor,-dr-david-strain\/&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">Action for ME<\/a>, a charity supporting people with myalgic encephalomyelitis, a post-viral illness similar to <a href=\"&quot;https:\/\/www.sciencefocus.com\/news\/what-is-long-covid\/&quot;\">long COVID<\/a>. He said we have yet to figure out how to live with the virus long-term, especially considering there are millions of people in the UK with long COVID.<\/p>\n<p>Some have even expressed concern for an increase in the prevalence of long COVID, if people are made to continue working while suffering with COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne clear fact about recovery from COVID-19, as with any significant viral infection, is that if a patient pushes too hard in the aftermath of the infection, this will slow their recovery,\u201d said Dr James Gill, honorary clinical lecturer for Warwick Medical School.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy removing the legal imperative to isolate following a COVID-19 infection, I have significant concerns\u2026 including that patients will become complacent in the face of infection, especially milder cases, resulting in further spread.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cKeeping in mind that currently <a href=\"\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/conditionsanddiseases\/articles\/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights\/infections#long-covid&quot;\" target=\"&quot;_blank&quot;\" rel=\"&quot;noopener&quot; noopener noreferrer\">1.3 million patients are estimated to be affected by long COVID<\/a>, and our understanding of the clear causes of this is currently still lacking.\u201d<\/p><\/body><\/html>\n<hr class=\"no-tts wp-block-separator\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Amy Barrett Published: Friday, 25 February 2022 at 12:00 am Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out his \u2018strategy for living with COVID\u2019, which includes ending all domestic restrictions in England, including the legal requirement to self-isolate after a positive COVID test. Johnson says the guidance is \u201cmoving from government restrictions to personal responsibility\u201d. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":6262,"template":"","categories":[1],"acf":{"readingTimeMinutes":"8"},"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/42\/2022\/02\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions.jpg",1200,798,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/42\/2022\/02\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/42\/2022\/02\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions-300x200.jpg",300,200,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/42\/2022\/02\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions-768x511.jpg",768,511,true],"large":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/42\/2022\/02\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions-1024x681.jpg",800,532,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/42\/2022\/02\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions.jpg",1200,798,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/42\/2022\/02\/what-do-scientists-say-about-ending-all-covid-restrictions.jpg",1200,798,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"importmanagerhub@sprylab.com","author_link":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/author\/importmanagerhubsprylab-com\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"By Amy Barrett Published: Friday, 25 February 2022 at 12:00 am Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out his \u2018strategy for living with COVID\u2019, which includes ending all domestic restrictions in England, including the legal requirement to self-isolate after a positive COVID test. Johnson says the guidance is \u201cmoving from government restrictions to personal responsibility\u201d.&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rss_feed\/6261"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rss_feed"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/rss_feed"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/bbcsciencefocus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}