Commercial enterprises will replace ISS activities in low-Earth orbit

The ISS will be deorbited gradually, to reach Earth’s surface at sea in the South Pacific Ocean Uninhabited Area

NASA has laid out its plan to decommission and deorbit the International Space Station (ISS) by 2031, it was announced in late January. Commercial replacement facilities are expected to step in before that time, allowing NASA to maintain a constant human presence in low-Earth orbit.

As the ISS enters its third decade, the spacecraft is beginning to show its age. Much of the equipment is outdated and structural problems, such as cracks discovered last year, are beginning to emerge. As such, the international partners have decided to wind down the station’s activities before eventually deorbiting the ISS. The process will take several years as the ISS’s orbit is gradually reduced by visiting spacecraft, eventually causing it to crash to Earth in January 2031. Due to the large amount of debris expected, it will be disposed of in the South Pacific Ocean Uninhabited Area.

To ensure that low-Earth orbit activities continue, NASA has commissioned several companies to create commercial low-Earth orbit destinations.

“We estimate that our agency’s future needs in low-Earth orbit will require accommodation and training for at least two crew members continuously,” says Angela Hearts, Manager of NASA’s Commercial Low Earth Orbit Development Program.

“All the companies propose an initial operating capability of their systems prior to 2030,” says Phil McAlister, Director of the Commercial Spaceflight Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

“This will… ensure that we don’t have a gap in our access to low-Earth orbit.”

The immediate future of the ISS is uncertain due to the ongoing situation in Ukraine. As of writing, the Western space agencies have expressed a desire to continue working with Roscomos, but the situation is constantly evolving. www.nasa.gov


Comment by Chris Lintott

While there are more pressing matters to worry about after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it seems the ISS may struggle to make it to 2031. Its Russian, European, Japanese and American modules were designed to work together, with close collaboration.

Other projects involving Russian partners are already unravelling. There will be no more launches of Soyuz rockets from ESA’s Kourou spaceport in French Guiana, and the agency admits that a 2022 launch of the Franklin Mars rover, reliant on the Russians, is “very unlikely”. Even the German eROSITA X-ray telescope, on board the Spektr-RG mission, has been mothballed.

Troubles on Earth rebound into the cosmos – and the ISS may cause the biggest headache.

Chris Lintott co-presents The Sky at Night