Tour de France 2024
Teams
At time of writing it isn’t certain that star rider Mathieu van der Poel will be in Alpecin’s Tour team. If he decides to ride XC mountain bike at the Paris Olympics he won’t, and if he doesn’t, he will. Regardless, he’s had mixed fortunes at the French race and was thoroughly off-colour and overworked last July, a race in which sprinter Jasper Philipsen won four stages, the green jersey and the status as the world’s fastest rider. Van der Poel operates as the most luxurious lead-out man ever for Philipsen, so his absence will be keenly felt if he’s not there.
Dream Tour
Another hatful of stage wins for Philipsen and a second green jersey to boot
Arkea-B&B Hotels recruited Arnaud Démare in a mid-season switch from Groupama-FDJ, as the combustible Frenchman fell out with his old boss. It will be looking to him for its first-ever stage win, even if it’s been six years since the second of his two wins here (2018 was also the last time he finished the race). Perhaps the more likely to break its duck is sprinter Luca Mozzato, who took a brilliant second at the Tour of Flanders in March. He had a couple of top 10s at last year’s Tour and will return strengthened by that Flanders podium.
Dream Tour
If a stage win is too much to ask, the likes of Mozzato to impact the race
Kazakhstan’s pro team, at one its lowest ebbs in its near-20-year history and fighting for its WorldTour licence, has been shrewd in re-recruiting Mark Cavendish as he bids – again – to become the Tour’s most-prolific rider (he’s currently tied with Eddy Merckx on 34 stage wins). Last summer’s attempt ended abruptly with a broken collar bone on the road to Limoges, but he’s having another crack in 2024. Aiding him are old muckers Michael Mørkøv and Davide Ballerini, who’ll add protection on the road and steel in the lead-out.
Dream Tour
Cavendish to finally take the stage win record, at the first opportunity in Turin
Pello Bilbao secured his best-ever Tour finish (6th) in 2023, as well as his first stage win. The Spaniard dedicated the win to teammate Gino Mäder, who had died a month earlier at the Tour de Suisse, and his death cast the team’s entire season into shadow. Last year’s team leader Mikel Landa has moved to Soudal-Quick-Step to support Remco Evenepoel. General classification hopes will again be a sideshow to the main business of stage-hunting, with Fred Wright, Woet Poels and Matej Mohorič all capable of adding to their impressive tally to date.
Dream Tour
Another flurry of stage wins, and this time one for the ever-animating Wright
Primož Roglič, winner of the Giro and Vuelta, made a huge move to the German outfit over the winter, with the biggest goal in mind: to win the Tour de France. Jonas Vingegaard, winner of the past two Tours, had blocked his path at his old team, so the transfer is an ambitious one for both parties. The team is all-in for Roglič. Fellow Giro winner Jai Hindley, who finished an encouraging 7th on race debut last year, steps back to support the Slovenian in the mountains, as does Russia’s Aleksandr Vlasov, 5th in 2022.
Dream Tour
A first yellow jersey for Roglič, finally exorcising the ghosts of 2020
The French team endured the leanest of times at its home Grand Tour, going 15 years without winning a stage. It arrested that decline last year with a double stage win, through Ion Izagirre and Victor Lafay. The latter has moved on to Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale, however. Incoming is Frenchman Kenny Elissonde from Lidl-Trek, a flyweight climber who’s only ridden the Tour twice. Guillaume Martin, now 30, will again lead its GC ambitions. A top 10 in the Tour is a valuable ranking point scorer for a team, and Martin does it with stealth.
Dream Tour
A third top 10 in four editions for Martin and another stage win to cement its resurgence
The long-running French team received a huge boost for its future last winter when sports mega-retailer Decathlon came on board as title sponsor. It doesn’t look hugely different in 2024, even if Sam Bennett and Victor Lafay join. Benoît Cosnefroy has ridden the previous five Tours for the team and took a decent win at Brabantse Pijl in the spring. Ben O’Connor, 4th in 2021, opted for the Giro in a bid to find his mojo again after some difficult Tours; in his place is Austrian Felix Gall, a breakout star of the 2023 Tour (8th overall and a stage win).
Dream Tour
Bennett to rediscover his sprinting mojo and GC progress for the promising Gall
Last year’s big acquisition for the Tour de France GC, Richard Carapaz, didn’t make it beyond stage 1, a crash putting him on the sidelines. Following another crash at Tirreno-Adriatico in March he spent another month out before a return in time for the Ardennes Classics in April. He’ll be hoping for a clean bill of health ahead of another tilt at the Tour – fit and healthy, he is a threat. He also has an Olympic title to defend right after the Tour. Neilson Powless, in the break and looking for stage wins, will give the team strength on multiple fronts.
Dream Tour
Carapaz to take his second podium at the Tour, and wins elsewhere for the likes of Neilson Powless
France’s top team will have to cope without its leading man, the now retired Thibaut Pinot. David Gaudu will need to shoulder more of the burden for the GC, something he’s been hit and miss at over the years. A win in the one-day Tour de Jura in April will have been a boost for him, though expectations at this point are low. The Tour debut of highly promising French youngster Lenny Martinez, 20, will likely have to wait another year at least, as he’s scheduled to ride the Vuelta a España once again, a race in which he wore the leader’s red jersey in 2023.
Dream Tour
Gaudu to go one better than his 4th in 2022 and make the podium
A team well used to having the outright favourite for the yellow jersey once again heads into the race trailing the best riders. Geraint Thomas, like Tadej Pogačar, is riding the Giro-Tour double and such is his diesel engine he can be relied upon to ride well in both. Spanish youngster Carlos Rodríguez, 5th last year, will aim for the GC again, though needs to improve his time trialling to be a contender. 2019 champion Egan Bernal, third at Volta Catalunya, continues to rebuild form and has confirmed he’ll ride this year’s race.
Dream Tour
Thomas to continue to defy time and make the podium for a 4th time
Intermarche-Wanty had quite a rankings slump in 2023 after a sterling 2022, and its Tour de France was symptomatic of that. Its main general classification guy, Louis Meintjes, fell out of the race on stage 14 while Biniam Girmay, after a breakout Classics win at Gent-Wevelgem and a Giro d’Italia stage win in 2022, endured a season of frustration. Both have made progress in 2024, Meintjes in particular with a win at Itzulia. Girmay returned to the Giro in May and how he fares there will dictate his participation in the Tour.
Dream Tour
A stage win for Girmay and Meintjes to ghost his way to a fourth top 10 finish
Chris Froome continues to be one of the best-paid riders in professional cycling, thanks to the long-term contract team owner Sylvan Adams gifted him in 2021. His highest finish in a Grand Tour since then is 114th. Unselected last year, he’ll likely continue on the sidelines and run down his lucrative contract. As a team of stage hunters, it has enjoyed good success, and in Stevie Williams (2024 La Fleche Wallone winner), Michael Woods and Simon Clarke (both past Tour de France stage winners), it has stacks of talent.
Dream Tour
A stage win for Williams to cap a memorable season, plus more from an always active team
A strong 2023 season set Lidl-Trek up for an even better 2024 and smart winter recruitment will help. Chief among the signings is 2020 Giro d’Italia winner Tao Geoghegan Hart from Ineos Grenadiers, who will spearhead the team’s Tour campaign this July. In top form and avoiding more than his fair share of bad luck, the Brit is one of the best of the rest outside of the Big Four, thanks to his pedigree against the clock in time trials. 2019 world champion Mads Pedersen, stage winner in each of the past two editions, will offer a constant threat.
Dream Tour
Geoghegan Hart to break into the top 5 overall and Pedersen to take a couple of stage wins
Arnaud de Lie, the team’s brightest prospect, is yet to make his Grand Tour debut and the 2024 Tour de France looked in doubt when he was diagnosed with bacterial infection Lyme disease. He was back on the bike in May, however, to win the Tro-Bro Léon one-day race. Danish rider Andreas Kron enjoyed a fruitful 2023, with a Vuelta win and numerous high-profile top 10s, and will hope for selection after missing out in 2023. Victor Campenaerts is a TT specialist and has a stage to his name in the Giro, albeit on a road stage.
Dream Tour
De Lie to recover from his illness in time to win on the road to Nice, and a strong showing from Kron
With team leader Enric Mas crashing out on the opening stage last year, Movistarwhose shine from a decade ago has long worn offwas left rudderless out of the gate. American youngster Matteo Jorgenson filled the gap admirably, coming close to stage wins on a couple of occasions – performances that helped earn him a move to serial winners Visma Lease a Bike. Mas will likely lead the line again in 2024; he has previous at the Tour, with 5th and 6th in 2020 and 2021, but the competition gets tougher with each passing year.
Dream Tour
A solid top 10 for Mas and animating the race after several anonymous Tours
Belgium’s number-one team has shifted its centre of gravity as a Classics-focused team to a Grand Tour one, to match the ambitions of Remco Evenepoel. The problem with that comes when that rider crashes out of the race or loses form, which Evenepoel has done (two Giro DNFs out of two, and a GC capitulation at the 2023 Vuelta). His collarbone break at Itzulia in April compounded the issue and his team will all cross their fingers that he can negotiate his first Tour free of major problems. When he is unfettered, he’s one of the world’s best.
Dream Tour
Overall victory for Evenepoel in Nice and a renaissance win for Julian Alaphilippe
Romain Bardet has indicated that this could be his last season, so he will want to go out on a high at the Tour if that pans out. He has two podiums to his name, the most recent in 2017. Warren Barguil, a new recruit, also had a Tour to remember in 2017, winning two stages and the polka dot jersey. For both men, it’s likely a Tour too far. Fabio Jakobsen is another new signing with more in the tank and will be a threat in sprints. Young Scot Oscar Onley, winner at the Tour Down Under, might get a ride if he recovers from another collarbone break.
Dream Tour
A top 10 for Bardet would be a fitting reward in his final Tour, plus a stage win or two for Jakobsen
Now, incredibly, 31, Simon Yates is an elder statesman in the battle for the yellow jersey and has an impressive body of work behind him, including five top 10s and a Vuelta win in 2018. Fourth overall in 2023 ended a rotten run of three consecutive Grand Tour abandons, which will give him confidence in what could be his prime years as a stage racer. The team will also have representation for the flat stages, both in the large frame of Dylan Groenewegen, winner of five stages between 2017 and 2022, and Michael Matthews, second at Milan-Sanremo in March.
Dream Tour
Another top 5 for Yates and a brace of wins for Groenewegen in the sprints
The winner of all three Grand Tours in 2023 saw its Tour preparations thrown into jeopardy in April when Jonas Vingegaard was embroiled in a horrendous crash at Itzulia Basque Country and spent 12 days in hospital. At the time of writing, his Tour participation seems in the balance, let alone his challenge for a third consecutive yellow jersey. Spoilt for GC options in 2023, this blow comes in the season Primož Roglič left for Bora-Hansgrohe. Sepp Kuss, 2023 Vuelta champion, will most likely be Vingegaard’s replacement should he not make it.
Dream Tour
A miraculous recovery from Vingegaard sees him win a third consecutive maillot jaune
Peter Sagan’s forgettable stay with the team ended with his retirement from the road at the end of 2023, a season in which the three-time world champ went winless for the first time in his pro career. Mathieu Burgaudeau came close a couple of times at last year’s race and is a threat in a breakaway, where the team will be at its most visible. Steff Cras was due to ride the Tour, but was one of the more seriously injured riders in the awful Itzulia Basque Country crash in the spring that brought down higher profile riders, calling it “a brush with death”.
Dream Tour
Another stage win, perhaps from Burgaudeau, to add to a decent haul in its various incarnations
Of the so-called Big Four contenders for the Tour, Tadej Pogačar was the only one to escape injury in the Basque Country pile-up, on account of being at an altitude training camp in southern Spain. When he announced his intention to take on the Giro-Tour double, it was assumed he’d romp the Giro but come up short once more against Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour. The Dane’s punctured lung has seen the odds slashed on his ambitious double, however, which hasn’t been done since Marco Pantani in the drug-plagued era of 1998.
Dream Tour
The Giro-Tour double for Pogačar in Nice while fending off strong challenges from his big rivals
Andreas Leknessund, the Norwegian who wore the maglia rosa, the leader’s jersey of the Giro d’Italia, for five stages last season and finished 8th overall while with Team DSM, has joined this Norwegian team for 2024 and is set to ride the Tour. He’ll have experienced support from Tour double stage winner Magnus Cort, while Tobias Halland Johannessen was the team’s highest GC rider at the Tour last year (30th). The wily Alexander Kristoff, a four-time stage winner, will be 37 in July but still has wins in his locker.
Dream Tour
Top 10 overall for Leknessund to follow up his strong Giro last season