{"id":67124,"date":"2024-07-20T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-20T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/4e8f0798-d17d-4ad1-9f1e-ae883fedfb08"},"modified":"2024-07-20T12:25:31","modified_gmt":"2024-07-20T10:25:31","slug":"aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions","status":"publish","type":"rss_feed","link":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/rss_feed\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"AeroCoach analysis | Tour de France stage 21 time trial tech and performance predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"rssexcerpt\">AeroCoach&#8217;s Dr Xavier Disley forecasts who will win the time trial on the final day of the 2024 Tour de France <\/p><p class=\"rssauthor\">By Dr Xavier Disley\n      <\/p><p class=\"rssbyline\">Published: Saturday, 20 July 2024 at 10:00 AM<\/p><hr class=\"no-tts wp-block-separator\"\/><?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"yes\"?>\n<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><body><p>After three weeks of hard racing, the 2024 Tour de France reaches its grand finale tomorrow.<\/p><p>In place of a ceremonial stage to Paris (this year\u2019s Tour finishes in Nice because the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cyclingnews.com\/features\/tour-de-france-itt-finale-in-nice-test-of-nerves-and-descending-prowess-joe-dombrowskis-stage-21-analysis\/\">Paris Olympics<\/a> is about to take over the French capital), the race organisers have planned a final test <em>contre-la-montre<\/em> for riders hoping to take home the coveted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/features\/tour-de-france-jersey-colours\">yellow jersey<\/a> or a stage win.<\/p><p>Mirroring the iconic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/blog\/the-greatest-tour-of-all-by-greg-lemond\">1989 Tour<\/a> (when Greg LeMond stunned the cycling world by stealing the yellow jersey from Laurent Fignon by eight seconds on the final day), stage 21 is an individual <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/advice\/buyers-guides\/time-trial-bikes\">time trial<\/a>.<\/p><p>The race starts in Monaco, and will be familiar to many of the peloton \u2013 including Tadej Poga\u010dar, who is accustomed to the second climb in Eze, having used it in the past for 5-minute hill repeats.<\/p><p>33.7km in length, the course profile follows a common theme in recent Grand Tour time trials, with a large central climb.<\/p><p>Here, there is a slight difference because the main climb is split into two, and although the elevation gained is nearly 700m, it will still be largely an aerodynamic test for the GC riders, rather than a pure hill-climb effort.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-la-turbie\">La Turbie<\/h2><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Stage 21 is set to test the riders&#8217; all-round abilities against the clock. &#8211; ASO<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>There\u2019s just 2.7km of opening roads around Monte Carlo before the main climb starts in earnest at La Turbie \u2013 an 8.2km gradient at 5.7 per cent.<\/p><p>This climb will take more than 20 minutes for most in the race, but the top general classification riders (who can climb at more than 6 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/advice\/fitness-and-training\/power-to-weight-ratio\">watts-per-kilogram<\/a>) will be dipping under 19 minutes for this section.<\/p><p>A time check at the top of the climb will give a good indicator as to who is climbing well and who might be losing time.<\/p><p>Because the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/events\/tour-de-france\">Tour de France<\/a> is the sport\u2019s most important race, there\u2019s always a battle for every place in the GC and riders will be putting everything into their effort here.<\/p><p>On La Turbie, a difference of 1kg is worth 4.2W, or around 10 seconds.<\/p><p>A 10-watt improvement in power output will see a rider gain 24 seconds, though, which is most relevant for riders in the GC top 10, where the time gaps are still extremely tight in some places.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1700\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2160757363-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Remco Evenepoel of Belgium and Team Soudal Quick-Step celebrates at podium as stage winner during the 111th Tour de France 2024, Stage 7 a 25.3km individual time trial stage\" class=\"wp-image-873379\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Could Remco Evenepoel take another stage win on the Tour&#8217;s final day? &#8211; Tim de Waele\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Given its length and gradient, aerodynamics will play a minimal role on the first climb. The average speeds for the top riders are unlikely to be more than 28kph, so we can expect to see them sat up with their hands on the base bars of their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/advice\/buyers-guides\/time-trial-bikes\">time trial bikes<\/a> for most of the climb.<\/p><p>Starting with a road bike will be a mistake, though, because riders will lose too much time on the initial 2.7km to make up for the difference on the climb.<\/p><p>Looking at the weather forecast, the riders can expect temperatures in the mid-20s (\u00baC) with potentially some rain.<\/p><p>Given this, overheating won\u2019t be as much of a problem as it would be with time-trial helmets in higher temperatures. We may see some riders placing their magnetically attached visors on top of their helmets, if this is an option, to increase convective cooling, though.<\/p><p>Riders will need their visors for the remainder of the race, so can\u2019t get rid of them.<\/p><p>The UCI regulations also don\u2019t allow for the removal of a helmet while riding, so riders can\u2019t have a helmet swap on the bike at the top unless they stop riding, which wouldn\u2019t be worth the lost seconds.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1706\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2160752793-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Jonas Vingegaard after stage 7 of the 2024 Tour de France\" class=\"wp-image-873375\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Riders might stow their visors to improve cooling on the climbs, but they&#8217;ll need to hold on to them for the second half of the stage. &#8211; Guillaume Horcajuelo &#8211; Pool\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Given how riders have been climbing so far, we can expect to see the main GC protagonists at the top of the leaderboard for this first time check at the top of La Turgie.<\/p><p>Unless he\u2019s on a bad day, Poga\u010dar will be unlikely to lose time to rivals at this point, but Jonas Vingegaard will be giving it everything to make up the most time in case of a mishap or miscalculation from his great rival.<\/p><p>The reigning time trial world champion, Remco Evenepoel, may take back a few seconds in the flatter, opening 2.7km. Given what we\u2019ve seen so far at this year\u2019s Tour, though, he\u2019s unlikely to be too close to Poga\u010dar by the top of the climb.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-col-d-eze\">Col d\u2019Eze<\/h2><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2160752930-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-873376\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Might Vingegaard go out hard, looking for a final shot at glory at this year&#8217;s Tour? &#8211; Tim de Waele\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Past the top of the La Turgie climb, there\u2019s a small intermediate section before the climb out of Eze, which is 1.6km at 8.8 per cent.<\/p><p>This takes in a fast, non-technical downhill section where riders will be partially recovering from their ~20-minute effort up La Turgie, but the short climb out of Eze (which will take the riders around 5 minutes) won\u2019t create as much of a time gap as La Turgie.<\/p><p>Riders who are spent from their opening effort could lose out, however \u2013 a 10-watt reduction in power output up Col D\u2019Eze will result in a 7-second time loss.<\/p><p>We then have the second time check. Barring any major disaster, the GC leaderboard should look broadly similar to the first check, though.<\/p><p>In Grand Tour time trials, the non-GC riders hunting for a stage win will often go hard to the first time check and take stock of their position. If they\u2019re off the pace, they\u2019ll simply cruise to the finish, so we may see some familiar time trial faces give it a go to the first time check, but not feature at the second.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-descent-to-nice\">Descent to Nice<\/h2><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"849\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/07\/Tour-de-France-2024_Stage-21_Map.jpeg\" alt=\"Tour de France 2024 Stage 21 course map\" class=\"wp-image-872375\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The descent into Nice will be fast and technical. &#8211; ASO<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Next comes the descent, where (apart from a small 800m 3.7 per cent &#8216;bump&#8217;) it will be fast from 17km to 28km. This 11km stretch is technical and will require good bike-handling skills.<\/p><p>Averaging a turn once every 500m, there are four hairpins, in which riders will have to scrub off a lot of speed.<\/p><p>This is still one for the time-trial bikes, though \u2013 especially so with the long, 5km+ run-in to the finish line, where anyone using a road bike would be at a big disadvantage.<\/p><p>These days, all of the teams will have done enough analysis to understand the impact of running road bikes in time trials, compared with years past.<\/p><p>If we do see riders on road bikes, it will simply be because it\u2019s their comfort or handling preference to just get safely through the final Tour stage \u2013 rather than targeting a performance advantage.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2160750427-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Tadej Pogacar of Slovenia and UAE Team Emirates - Yellow Leader Jersey sprints while fans cheer during the 111th Tour de France 2024, Stage 7 a 25.3km individual time trial stage from Nuits-Saint-Georges to Gevrey-Chambertin\" class=\"wp-image-873373\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The top riders will ride their TT bikes because they risk losing significant time using a road bike. &#8211; Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Gaining time on the descent will be mostly about bike handling and less about raw power. Given the risk of crashing, riders who have consolidated their GC position may well back off slightly to not risk any mishaps.<\/p><p>The final time check, with around 5km to go, will reveal who has taken it easier on the descent, and then it\u2019s a straightforward run-in to the finish.<\/p><p>Poga\u010dar could go for the stage win, but would have to take risks on the descent \u2013 we saw Vingegaard do this when in the race lead at last year\u2019s Tour, though, so it\u2019s not unheard of.<\/p><p>The final stretch is long enough to gain a few seconds back \u2013 an additional 10 watts is worth around 3 seconds in this final section.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-can-riders-do-to-improve-their-performance-on-this-stage-nbsp\">What can riders do to improve their performance on this stage?\u00a0<\/h2><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2023\/12\/Van-Rysel-XCR-time-trial-bikeDecathlon-AG2R017-7935ed5-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Van Rysel XCR time trial bike\" class=\"wp-image-805590\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Despite the climbs, riders should go all-in on aerodynamics with their bike setup. &#8211; Liam Cahill \/ Our Media<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>The top riders will be racing for less than 45 minutes, as long as the conditions are acceptable (too much rain on the descent will slow things down significantly), meaning <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/incoming\/features\/how-tour-de-france-pros-fuel-cool-hydrate\">nutrition and hydration<\/a> aren\u2019t as much of a factor as on other stages.<\/p><p>Equipment-wise, it will be nigh-on impossible to lose 1kg from a time-trial bike without adversely affecting the aerodynamics of the whole system, so more focus should be on the rider.<\/p><p>Are they going to overheat on the climb? Is there anything they can do with their clothing to mitigate it? A short-sleeve skinsuit or detachable visor, for example.<\/p><p>Pacing will also be key, given there&#8217;s more than 16km from the second time check to the finish line. With the current time gaps between the top three, though, something very dramatic would need to happen to upset the apple cart in the fight for the yellow jersey.<\/p><p>We may see riders choosing lighter equipment, such as a shallower front wheel, but this isn\u2019t necessary because the weight savings aren\u2019t enough to make it worthwhile.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1820\" height=\"1214\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2156197635-edited.jpg\" alt=\"Remco Evenepoel during stage 4 of the 2024 Criterium du Dauphine\" class=\"wp-image-873382\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Will riders opt for a more aerodynamic 1x setup, or for the wider range of a 2x drivetrain?<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Using a 2x or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/advice\/buyers-guides\/1x-drivetrains\">1x drivetrain<\/a> will also be something to consider given the course profile. A 2x drivetrain naturally has more range, but a 1x drivetrain can be more aerodynamic due to the absence of a front derailleur.<\/p><p>Whichever they opt for, we&#8217;re likely to see many riders using <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bikeradar.com\/features\/tech\/why-are-pros-using-such-big-chainrings\">oversized chainrings for improved drivetrain efficiency<\/a>.<\/p><p>Riders using 1x could climb in a 58x30t chainring\/sprocket combination at 90rpm, giving them a speed of around 22kph \u2013 at the lower end of the speeds expected of the top riders.<\/p><p>Going to a larger, 60x30t combination is around 1kph difference at 90rpm while climbing, so that will also be an option for the strongest riders.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1716\" src=\"https:\/\/c02.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2160757338-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Tadej Pogacar of Slovenia and UAE Team Emirates celebrates at podium as Yellow Leader Jersey winner during the 111th Tour de France 2024\" class=\"wp-image-873384\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Will Poga\u010dar go for the stage win? On current form, we wouldn&#8217;t be surprised. &#8211; Tim de Waele\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure><p>Overall, this time trial is certainly a good test for the general classification riders.<\/p><p>Riders can\u2019t afford to be poor at handling their time-trial bike on the technical descent, 25 per cent of the race is pan-flat, and there\u2019s a solid climb that needs to be tackled with precise pacing.<\/p><p>Whoever wins the stage will have proven themselves to be a complete rider against the clock.<\/p> <\/body><\/html>\n<hr class=\"no-tts wp-block-separator\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AeroCoach&#8217;s Dr Xavier Disley forecasts who will win the time trial on the final day of the 2024 Tour de France <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":67125,"template":"","categories":[1,36],"acf":{"readingTimeMinutes":"9"},"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/43\/2024\/07\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions.jpg",2560,1707,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/43\/2024\/07\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/43\/2024\/07\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions-300x200.jpg",300,200,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/43\/2024\/07\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions-768x512.jpg",768,512,true],"large":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/43\/2024\/07\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions-1024x683.jpg",800,534,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/43\/2024\/07\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions-1536x1024.jpg",1536,1024,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/43\/2024\/07\/aerocoach-analysis-tour-de-france-stage-21-time-trial-tech-and-performance-predictions-2048x1366.jpg",2048,1366,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"importmanagerhub@sprylab.com","author_link":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/author\/importmanagerhubsprylab-com\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"AeroCoach's Dr Xavier Disley forecasts who will win the time trial on the final day of the 2024 Tour de France","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rss_feed\/67124"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rss_feed"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/rss_feed"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/cyclingplus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}