Get it in your diary.

By Michael Potts

Published: Monday, 06 February 2023 at 12:00 am

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Harry Kane is bearing down on one of the most illustrious individual honours in world football: top goalscorer in Premier League history.

The Tottenham superstar has racked up a mammoth tally of 200 top flight strikes before his 30th birthday, making it seem inevitable he will go on to topple the existing record.

Alan Shearer’s remarkable 260-goal haul, set in 2006, has been unrivalled since his retirement as challengers have come and gone.

Sergio Aguero finished well short on 184, Thierry Henry’s move to Barcelona scuppered his hopes, and a grand total of just three players have scored more than 188 goals in Premier League history.

Shearer tops the lot, Wayne Rooney breached 200 goals but his challenge ran out of steam at 208, now Kane has converted the duo into a trio.

But when could he realistically expect to topple Shearer’s record? RadioTimes.com brings you a healthy dose of method and madness as we aim to calculate the date when Harry Kane could beat Alan Shearer’s Premier League goal record.

When could Harry Kane beat Alan Shearer’s Premier League record?

At the time of writing, Kane has just racked up his 200th Premier League goal in 304 appearances. He is 60 short of Shearer’s massive 260-goal total.

Now, shall we begin?

Kane’s all-time Premier League goal ratio comes out at 0.66 goals per game. In 2022/23, he is operating above average with 0.77 goals per game, though we will use his all-time average for our calculations going forward.

A continuation of his all-time Premier League career pace (0.66 goals per game) would see Kane end this season on 26 goals – a total of 209.

Kane has averaged 34 Premier League appearances for Tottenham over his eight full seasons with the club. (We have excluded his breakthrough season, where he played just 10 times, and the incomplete 2022/23 season.)

Combining the above shows Kane averages 34 games and 22 goals per season.

We will now fast-forward through the remainder of 2022/23, plus two further seasons, at that pace. Kane has finished 2024/25 with a tantalising total of 253 Premier League goals to his name. He is seven short of equalling Shearer’s record.

Again, continuing at the same pace, disregarding Kane’s infamous August droughts, Kane will reach the required eight goals (to hit 261) in the 14th matchweek of 2025/26. Week 14 fell on Saturday 29th October in 2022, but will be a couple of days later in 2025.

Therefore, we conclude [drumroll, please] Harry Kane will break Alan Shearer’s Premier League record on Saturday 1st November 2025 – the day after Harry Kane’s 32nd birthday! Unless, of course, anyone fancies a spot of Friday Night Football.

Get it in the diary, you heard it here first.