BBC Test Match Special statistician Andy Zaltzman chatted to RadioTimes.com about the Ashes 2023 and quirky stats as England aim to defeat Australia this summer. <\/p>
BBC Test Match Special stats wizard Andy Zaltzman knows his numbers. The cricket-obsessed comedian and statistician \u2013 two job roles that don\u2019t usually pair like a cheese and fine wine \u2013 sat down for an exclusive chat with RadioTimes.com<\/a> as England gear up for a long summer against Australia in the Ashes.<\/p>\n Zaltzman ran through some of the key facts and figures that could provide a forecast of how the great summer of Ashes cricket will pan out in the weeks to come.<\/p>\n He picked out a crucial player in England\u2019s arsenal, delved into how England have won matches under the stewardship of coach Brendan McCullum and captain Ben Stokes, and revealed they direction his completely unscientific win predictor is leaning going into the series.<\/p>\n AZ:<\/strong>\u00a0England are playing this unprecedented style of cricket. All-out attack with the bat, going at 4.8 an over since [Brendan] McCullum and [Ben] Stokes took over last year, over 13 tests, which is by far the fastest a team has scored over a sequence of matches that long. The previous best 13-game sequence, in terms of runs per over, was 4.1 and that was a great Australian side 20 years ago. It shows quite how England have committed to this. To have a whole batting line-up geared to attack is something that\u2019s essentially not been done in Test cricket before.<\/p>\n What we have with Australia is an extremely high class bowling attack but the one glitch this England batting side had in the series\u2019 played since McCullum took over was against South Africa last summer. South Africa bowled them out cheaply twice at Lord\u2019s, they had them in trouble at Old Trafford and bowled them out cheap at The Oval again. But that batting was very weak, England\u2019s bowling was excellent and they won that series anyway. But that\u2019s the closest thing they have come to an attack of the quality that Australia is bringing, which might be a slight worry. It is an absolutely fascinating prospect and also on a personal level, I\u2019ve been watching cricket since I was six years old on the telly but I\u2019ve never been to Day One of an Ashes series. I am ridiculously excited about it on a personal level!<\/p>\n More from The Ashes: Ashes TV coverage<\/a> | Ashes radio coverage<\/a> | Ashes schedule<\/a> | Ashes squads<\/a> | Ashes predictions<\/a> | Ashes highlights<\/a> | Sky Sports Ashes commentators<\/a> | Test Match Special Ashes commentators<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n AZ:<\/strong> Steve Smith in 2019 scored almost 800 runs, averaged over 100. He had seven innings in the series and reached 80 in the first six of them. If he does something like that again, then England are clearly in trouble, but in a way, if Australia can protect Smith a bit by delaying the taking of the first two wickets, that\u2019s going to have a big impact on his productivity.<\/p>\n If England can get on top of Warner as they did four years ago, and in the latter part of the series in Australia 18 months ago, that might make things tougher for Labuschagne and Smith coming in. Labuschagne is an old style No.3 player, very steady, very consistent, I think if England can undermine him and reduce his extraordinary output that he\u2019s had since coming into the Test side, again, that gives them a better chance.<\/p>\n Essentially as we\u2019ve seen with this Stokes-McCullum side, it\u2019s the bowlers that win games. The extraordinary thing with this England side is that the batting buys time for them to take wickets but they\u2019ve taken basically every possible wicket they could take since Stokes and McCullum took over. They have bowled out their opposition in every innings. It will be a challenge, if they\u2019re going to have quite flat pitches, it\u2019s going to be a huge challenge for England but I think they\u2019re definitely capable of it.<\/p> AZ:<\/strong>\u00a0I think possibly if I could pick one England player it would be Ollie Robinson, who is probably more likely to play all five Tests than Anderson and Broad just because he\u2019s not either over 40 or nearly 40 although those two are prodigious athletes who I\u2019m sure could play five Tests if they wanted to. Robinson, that much younger, he\u2019s had a few injury problems himself but his record is absolutely superb for England, averaging 21 in 16 Tests so far, 66 wickets, one of the best starts an England player has ever had to a Test career.<\/p>\n He\u2019s taken 40 wickets in seven Tests in England, he was okay in the last Ashes but didn\u2019t have a major impact on it, I think in the physical condition he\u2019s in now, he looks fitter and more robust. He\u2019s got a very good record against good players and I think if he has a big series, then England are in business. He\u2019s a highly-skilled bowler, bowls from a really awkward height, not quick but quick enough that his movement causes problems, he can move it both ways and has the confidence of someone who has had a lot of success in a short period of time.<\/p>\n Read more: Best cricket players in the world 2023<\/a> | Best cricket players of all time<\/a> | Highest wicket takers in Ashes history<\/a> | Highest run scorers in Ashes history<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n AZ:<\/strong> It\u2019s quite hard to make the case from a numbers point of view because his numbers are not great and over quite a long period of time. He\u2019s coming up to his 35th test averaging 27-28, which is not great. His failure rate, the number of innings in which he\u2019s out for less than 20, is historically high, one of the highest in Test history for a top order player. It\u2019s quite hard to make that case.<\/p>\n He has had innings where he\u2019s scored rapidly at the start, and that\u2019s sort of what England are looking for. He\u2019s got a number of entries in the fastest 50s by England openers, he sort of almost dominates that list now after the last year, but whether he can do it in an Ashes against really high class seam bowling, there\u2019s nothing in his stats so far to suggest that he can do that.<\/p>\n But the thing with cricket stats is they tell you what has happened, what is likely to happen, what may happen but not what will happen so there\u2019s always a chance that players break through. It\u2019s one of the numerous fascinating subplots but in terms of Crawley opening, I think if he doesn\u2019t succeed in the first two Tests, they will look to do something different. They\u2019ve been extremely patient with him as a long-term project player but at some point he will have to start producing what they want from him more consistently than he has.<\/p>\n AZ:<\/strong> We\u2019ve looked at a lot of the numbers of the Stokes-McCullum team over the last 13 Tests and it is extraordinary \u2013 I mentioned their scoring rate 4.8 per over in that time. They\u2019ve lost a wicket when batting every 50 balls and they\u2019ve taken a wicket every 51 balls, so they\u2019ve been losing wickets quicker than they\u2019ve been taking wickets but they\u2019ve won 11 and lost two of those 13 games. Usually you\u2019d expect a winning team to be batting longer than it bowls. Australia, in the same period, won seven, lost three, they\u2019ve been losing a wicket every 64 balls taking a wicket every 50 balls, it\u2019s more what you would expect from a team that is dominating.<\/p>\n That shows the way England are playing, this very fast, high-risk batting style, but also that balls per wicket has come down quite a lot with broadly the same attack that they had before and that\u2019s been one of the fascinations of this team is seeing them in the field.<\/p>\n AZ:<\/strong> I think it\u2019s leaning very slightly to Australia because of the quality of their team. This is a generation of players that has never won an Ashes series in England. They retained them last time as the series was drawn 2-2 after they lost the final Test at The Oval. They will really want to get a series win, they\u2019re very, very good but not flawless. I\u2019m hoping it will be an absolutely classic series and we\u2019ll get a rare decisive fifth Test, which doesn\u2019t happen very often in Ashes series\u2019.<\/p>\n On a scale of 100, I think 52-48 to Australia, anyone reading in the United Kingdom should know a thing about a 52-48 split \u2013 never ends well \u2013 so we\u2019ll see. But I do think England have a good chance. It\u2019s one of those series, ask anyone to predict it, it\u2019s quite possible that Australia will win 5-0, it\u2019s possible England will win 5-0, it might be 2-2, 3-2, it could be anything, and that is what makes it so fascinating but I slightly lean to a narrow Australia win but I hope I\u2019m wrong.<\/p>\n The way this England team has been playing has been quite genuinely extraordinary. Extraordinary is the most overused word in sports coverage but I think it is genuinely extraordinary and fascinating and captivating and exciting. It\u2019ll be very interesting to see how it pans out against this Australian side.<\/p>\n BBC Test Match Special<\/a> has the rights to broadcast ball-by-ball commentary of The Ashes, with the team set to bring full coverage throughout every day of action.<\/p>\n Broadcasts will be aired on BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra and via their online player, with build-up of each match starting prior to the time listed above.<\/p>\n BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra is available on digital radio and online<\/a>. It is not broadcast on AM\/FM radio.<\/p>\n Test Match Special has been broadcast via Radio 4 long-wave radio in the past, but this is the final Ashes series to be aired on the platform.<\/p>\n The service is being gradually shut down before a complete switch off, meaning the only way to listen to TMS will be via a digital radio after this summer.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re looking for something else to watch, check out our\u00a0TV Guide<\/a>\u00a0and Streaming<\/span> Guide<\/span><\/b><\/a> or visit our Sport<\/a> hub for all the latest news.<\/strong><\/p>\n Take part in\u00a0the Screen Test<\/a>, a project from Radio Times and the Universities of Sussex and Brighton, to explore the role of television and audio in our lives.<\/strong><\/p>\n Try Radio Times magazine today and get 12 issues for only \u00a31 with delivery to your home \u2013\u00a0<\/strong>subscribe now<\/strong><\/a>. For more from the biggest stars in TV, listen to\u00a0<\/strong>The Radio Times Podcast<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p> <\/body><\/html>\n BBC Test Match Special statistician Andy Zaltzman chatted to RadioTimes.com about the Ashes 2023 and quirky stats as England aim to defeat Australia this summer. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":33923,"template":"","categories":[1,7,5],"acf":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/56\/2023\/06\/bbc-test-match-specials-andy-zaltzman-on-ashes-2023-england-stats-quirks-and-how-to-stop-australia-scaled.jpg",2560,1563,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/56\/2023\/06\/bbc-test-match-specials-andy-zaltzman-on-ashes-2023-england-stats-quirks-and-how-to-stop-australia-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/56\/2023\/06\/bbc-test-match-specials-andy-zaltzman-on-ashes-2023-england-stats-quirks-and-how-to-stop-australia-300x183.jpg",300,183,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/56\/2023\/06\/bbc-test-match-specials-andy-zaltzman-on-ashes-2023-england-stats-quirks-and-how-to-stop-australia-768x469.jpg",768,469,true],"large":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/56\/2023\/06\/bbc-test-match-specials-andy-zaltzman-on-ashes-2023-england-stats-quirks-and-how-to-stop-australia-1024x625.jpg",800,488,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/56\/2023\/06\/bbc-test-match-specials-andy-zaltzman-on-ashes-2023-england-stats-quirks-and-how-to-stop-australia-1536x938.jpg",1536,938,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/uploads\/sites\/56\/2023\/06\/bbc-test-match-specials-andy-zaltzman-on-ashes-2023-england-stats-quirks-and-how-to-stop-australia-2048x1250.jpg",2048,1250,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"importmanagerhub@sprylab.com","author_link":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/author\/importmanagerhubsprylab-com\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"BBC Test Match Special statistician Andy Zaltzman chatted to RadioTimes.com about the Ashes 2023 and quirky stats as England aim to defeat Australia this summer.","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rss_feed\/33922"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rss_feed"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/rss_feed"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33923"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/c01.purpledshub.com\/radiotimes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}The teams: A clash of styles<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The problem: How to stop Australia<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The key weapon: Ollie Robinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The opener: Crawley by numbers<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The quirk: England\u2019s unusual record<\/strong><\/h3>\n
The Andy Zaltzman Ashes Win Predictor: It says\u2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Listen to The Ashes on the radio<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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